Western restrictions on how Ukraine can strike Russian targets could render its F-16 fighter jets ineffective, military experts told Business Insider.
Most of Ukraine’s allies, including the US, do not allow it to use long-range weapons they have provided to freely strike targets on Russian soil.
This means that Ukraine cannot destroy the source of many Russian attacks, and instead must try to stop each one as it arrives – a very difficult task.
This, in turn, leaves Russian weapons more free to hit Ukrainian aircraft, making them vulnerable and unable to fly near the front lines.
George Barros, a Russia analyst at the US-based Center for the Study of War, said the link between the West’s weaknesses and the success of Ukraine’s F-16s is “highly underappreciated.”
He said the current restrictions mean Ukraine can only strike a limited area, allowing Russia to focus its air defenses on those areas.
Allowing Ukraine to fire missiles at Russia will force Russia to make tough decisions, Barros said, including where to place its air defenses and what to protect.
The incoming missile comes from an S-400 air defense system in southern Russia. DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images
At that point, Russia may move its air defenses back to protect its rear, where Ukraine can’t strike now, Barros said — a move that would move Russian weapons away from Ukraine itself.
“It creates more operational depth for Ukrainian F-16s to operate over a large Ukrainian area, operate near the front lines, and in some limited situations operate in the territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia,” he said.
Lifting the sanctions would also allow Ukraine to hit more Russian air defenses, Barros added, allowing it to “carry out operations to undermine Russia’s air defenses.”
Michael Bohnert, an air warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, said the task in Ukraine is becoming more difficult now, and that “shooting an archer is always better than shooting an arrow.”
Western Frontiers
Ukraine has repeatedly urged its allies to ease arms embargoes, saying it would allow it to fight more effectively.
Several eased their stance in May, allowing Ukraine to use short-range weapons on Russian soil on a limited basis.
War experts say it quickly made a difference.
But the current restrictions on long-range weapons mean that Ukraine cannot use some of its most powerful weapons, such as the Storm Shadow / SCALP and ATACMS missiles, to attack military targets in Russia.
A still image from Ukrainian air force footage showing the Storm Shadow missile being launched. YouTube air force / Ukraine
Instead, Ukraine relies on less powerful drones for those strikes.
ISW estimated last month that at least 250 key military targets in Russia were within range of Ukraine’s ATACMS missiles, but restrictions meant they could only hit 20 of them.
It said that Ukraine “needs to be able to target Russian air defenses with long-range weapons provided by the West to enable the use of F-16 aircraft.”
In a separate announcement, it said that Ukraine would be able to use jets near its borders if it destroyed Russian air defense equipment.
Maj. Gen. Gordon B. “Skip” Davis, Jr., former deputy assistant secretary general of NATO, told BI that he “strongly advocates the removal of all restrictions” on the use of Western part of Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in front of the first F-16 fighter jets received by Ukraine on August 4, 2024. Vitalii Nosach / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Davis said Ukraine’s attack on Kursk last month – where Ukraine claims 500 square kilometers of Russian territory – is proof that Russia’s repeated threats to increase red lines it is full of lies.
“That hasn’t happened, and it won’t happen,” he added: “I don’t think that’s going to happen, despite the bluster we get from Putin and the politicians. others.”
A limited number of F-16s
Ukraine’s F-16 success faces further challenges.
Chief among them is the small number of aircraft it has.
Denmark, Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands have pledged more than 85 F-16s to Ukraine, with an undisclosed number to be delivered in August.
But that’s not enough to make it very effective, many aviation experts say.
F-16s in the sky over Poland in August 2023. AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski, File
Michael Clarke, a Russia-Ukraine expert and UK national security adviser, previously told BI that for the planes to be truly operational, Ukraine needs at least 200 of them, as well as the support systems they need. .
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in May that Ukraine needs 120 to 130 advanced fighter jets to challenge Russia in the air.
Ukraine began requesting F-16s shortly after Russia attacked, and Keir Giles, senior adviser at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program, said earlier this month that the delay meant “Russia given enough time to plan the emergence of a new Ukraine. type of aircraft, and adapt to it.”
Ukraine and its allies, as well as military experts, also describe the Ukrainian F-16 program as a start-up.
Ukraine lost one F-16 along with its pilot in late August.
Aviation experts told BI that it was unclear what happened, and that it could have been due to pilot error, friendly fire, or a Russian missile.
Farewell ceremony of Ukrainian F-16 pilot Oleksiy Mest in Shepetivka on August 29. Photo by Libkos/Getty Images
They said the loss of aircraft was to be expected, not cause for panic.
Barros pointed to Britain’s Second World War, where a large number of pilots and aircraft were lost.
He said: “Pointing at some of the damaged Ukrainian planes and the missing pilots and then coming to a conclusion like ‘Oh, shoot, we can’t do this’ – it’s like making Americans watch what’s going on in the War of World War II. Britain and saying: ‘Oh, man, the Brits are losing a lot of Spitfires, why are we still sending raw materials and weapons to the UK?’
Aviation experts say they didn’t expect the F-16s to be a game-changer for Ukraine, especially given the small initial numbers.
But they said the jets would help Ukraine’s self-defense efforts, including protecting cities from Russian drone and missile attacks.
Zelenskyy said this month that there are plans to increase the number of Ukrainian airliners and trained pilots.
Ukraine’s F-16s could also be made more powerful: the US is reportedly debating whether to equip Ukraine with US-made long-range missiles.
“We are far from seeing the full potential of what I think the Ukrainian Air Force can achieve with the F-16, especially once they improve their capabilities,” Barros said.
However, much may depend on Ukraine being allowed to strike inside Russia.